xr86yp295m Forex Leader: 2009

Great December start

December 5, 2009

Excellent week again, the first one of December - we had NFP yesterday which shook things a bit but all in all here's how we closed on Friday:



Have a great week-end all and see you at market open as usual !

Friday close

November 28, 2009

See what I mean? Only trades taken since Tuesday and again we ended the week at + 1,000 pips...

Friday close

November 22, 2009

A few hours before markets open. I haven’t been on here as much lately because I’ve been involved in something else (The Settlers – Rise of an Empire VI , which I’m about to finish, all the 35 levels, love that game) all the while keeping an eye on my platforms, of course. Also, I feel a bit awkward repeating the same thing over and over again, that is, that this system works quite well, so I don’t have much to add except that, well, things are still going very well. Here’s how things ended at Friday’s close:



You can see 5 trades taken Wednesday, 1 Thursday and 2 Friday. I guess by now, if you’ve read up to here, you can see the results of this system and I truly feel my entries are beginning to be a bit redundant. I’ll still keep you posted on a regular basis but I think in the future I’ll try to write entries on how I went about optimizing the various parameters so you can get an idea of the work involved if you’re interested in doing the same thing either with other pairs or on other time frames. I’ll start this week with an introductory post on the basics of using the Strategy Tester.

Alright, less than 3 hours to go – to your screens, my friends, and have a great trading week !

MT4 tip

November 6, 2009

Trading week just ended – it was a good one except for the beginning which was rather mixed but then on Wednesday things stabilized in the trending zone where we’re still seeing some nice regular pips.

I thought I’d share a tip which one of the users asked me about. If you use this system AND also trade manually based on another system (dailies, for instance, or a bit of scalping here and there) and you want to distinguish between trades taken by the EAs and trades you took manually (we don’t always remember which is which), here is what you simply need to do: anywhere in the terminal window, right-click and select “comments”. You’ll get an additional column which identifies MA-GBPCHF-60, for example, which tells you this trade was taken by your EA and “nothing” for the ones you took manually. A simple but useful trick.

Have a great one all and be sure to be up and ready for Sunday open !

Just amazing

October 28, 2009

Just got up, look at this. This is only since Monday, 3 days worth of trading, mini lots....... what can I say ?

Broker glitch

October 25, 2009

The week started out great and then all of a sudden, on Wednesday, Oct 21st at 13:00 EST, a mysterious technical glitch with my broker created some major spikes in 6 of the 10 pairs as you can see below:



Pairs affected: audusd, eurjpy, eurusd, gbpaud, gbpchf & gbpusd. These caused both my trending and ranging platform accounts to go to negative balances, so I had to restart with fresh accounts. But before I could do that, I needed to correct the situation because the MAs were, of course, all mixed up because of the erroneous data.

So if this ever happens to you, simply reload each pairs’s historic data (Tools menu, then History Center, then select pair) and close and reload MT4. If that doesn’t correct all pairs, then go to the 1H data and simply delete the hour with the erroneous data and things should get back to normal.

As you can see below, we’ve got 4 new fresh trades (the gbp family) all taken on Friday and all positive:

Friday close

October 16, 2009

Well here's how our week ended about 10 minutes ago at 17:00 EST. Remember that eurgbp should be about +120 more than what is showing:



Alright, another week-end coming up, hope it's nice where you are, we've been having rainy weather all week !

Have a great WEEK-END !!!

Nice week again

October 15, 2009

Here are this week’s trades so far :



The EURGBP should actually be about + 120, not 4 – this is due to a double technical glitch I had with this one (invalid price).

As you can see below, there was a sell on oct 8 followed by a cross up but my trade didn’t exit. If things went ok on your side, you should have taken the first long for some nice profit then re-entered short at about 93.03 and would currently be about + 120 pips (don’t forget, eurgpb’s pips are currently worth $1.63 US, so you need to multiply).



We’ll see how the week unwinds tomorrow

MT4 error messages and descriptions

There are 2 files for which you have access in your MT4 platform which are related to error messages. The 2 files are located here:

1. C:\Program files\Your_MT4_Directory\Experts\Include\stderror.mqh
2. C:\Program files\Your_MT4_Directory\Experts\Librairies\stdlib.mq4

First, you’ve got a list of codes returned from the trade server, followed by MQL4 errors. You can see the number of the error and the code description – see below:

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
// return error description
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+

//---- codes returned from trade server
case 0:
case 1: error_string="no error";
case 2: error_string="common error";
case 3: error_string="invalid trade parameters";
case 4: error_string="trade server is busy";
case 5: error_string="old version of the client terminal";
case 6: error_string="no connection with trade server";
case 7: error_string="not enough rights";
case 8: error_string="too frequent requests";
case 9: error_string="malfunctional trade operation (never returned error)";
case 64: error_string="account disabled";
case 65: error_string="invalid account";
case 128: error_string="trade timeout";
case 129: error_string="invalid price";
case 130: error_string="invalid stops";
case 131: error_string="invalid trade volume";
case 132: error_string="market is closed";
case 133: error_string="trade is disabled";
case 134: error_string="not enough money";
case 135: error_string="price changed";
case 136: error_string="off quotes";
case 137: error_string="broker is busy (never returned error)";
case 138: error_string="requote";
case 139: error_string="order is locked";
case 140: error_string="long positions only allowed";
case 141: error_string="too many requests";
case 145: error_string="modification denied because order too close to market";
case 146: error_string="trade context is busy";
case 147: error_string="expirations are denied by broker";
case 148: error_string="amount of open and pending orders has reached the limit";


//---- mql4 errors

case 4000: error_string="no error (never generated code)";
case 4001: error_string="wrong function pointer";
case 4002: error_string="array index is out of range";
case 4003: error_string="no memory for function call stack";
case 4004: error_string="recursive stack overflow";
case 4005: error_string="not enough stack for parameter";
case 4006: error_string="no memory for parameter string";
case 4007: error_string="no memory for temp string";
case 4008: error_string="not initialized string";
case 4009: error_string="not initialized string in array";
case 4010: error_string="no memory for array\' string";
case 4011: error_string="too long string";
case 4012: error_string="remainder from zero divide";
case 4013: error_string="zero divide";
case 4014: error_string="unknown command";
case 4015: error_string="wrong jump (never generated error)";
case 4016: error_string="not initialized array";
case 4017: error_string="dll calls are not allowed";
case 4018: error_string="cannot load library";
case 4019: error_string="cannot call function";
case 4020: error_string="expert function calls are not allowed";
case 4021: error_string="not enough memory for temp string returned from function";
case 4022: error_string="system is busy (never generated error)";
case 4050: error_string="invalid function parameters count";
case 4051: error_string="invalid function parameter value";
case 4052: error_string="string function internal error";
case 4053: error_string="some array error";
case 4054: error_string="incorrect series array using";
case 4055: error_string="custom indicator error";
case 4056: error_string="arrays are incompatible";
case 4057: error_string="global variables processing error";
case 4058: error_string="global variable not found";
case 4059: error_string="function is not allowed in testing mode";
case 4060: error_string="function is not confirmed";
case 4061: error_string="send mail error";
case 4062: error_string="string parameter expected";
case 4063: error_string="integer parameter expected";
case 4064: error_string="double parameter expected";
case 4065: error_string="array as parameter expected";
case 4066: error_string="requested history data in update state";
case 4099: error_string="end of file";
case 4100: error_string="some file error";
case 4101: error_string="wrong file name";
case 4102: error_string="too many opened files";
case 4103: error_string="cannot open file";
case 4104: error_string="incompatible access to a file";
case 4105: error_string="no order selected";
case 4106: error_string="unknown symbol";
case 4107: error_string="invalid price parameter for trade function";
case 4108: error_string="invalid ticket";
case 4109: error_string="trade is not allowed in the expert properties";
case 4110: error_string="longs are not allowed in the expert properties";
case 4111: error_string="shorts are not allowed in the expert properties";
case 4200: error_string="object is already exist";
case 4201: error_string="unknown object property";
case 4202: error_string="object is not exist";
case 4203: error_string="unknown object type";
case 4204: error_string="no object name";
case 4205: error_string="object coordinates error";
case 4206: error_string="no specified subwindow";
default: error_string="unknown error";

New version of EA - Error Messages

New version of EA – Error messages

You might remember I wrote a while back about an error message I have been getting from time to time for which (1) I don’t know the cause and (2) can’t find a solution because of (1). So I just live with it. That error is “(0) No Error”. Now what this does is after there is a valid cross and an alert is sent, the open trade order is sent but then this No Error shows up and no trade is taken. You can see in the example below exactly what shows up in your lower Experts folder. This happened last Monday with GBPAUD (you have to read from bottom to top).



As you can see, you’ve got first “Alert: Moving Average Cross Down” followed by the closing of the previous Buy then it says the stdlib was loaded successfully (more on that later) then instead of getting a normal message which would say “Open Sell”, the Error Message appeared “Error Opening Sell order: (0) no error” and no trade was taken. Let me show you what happened to GBPAUD after that:



You can see the closing of the previous Buy (red triangle) and also the crossing of the MAs and also that no Sell order was taken – this would appear as a small red arrow. You can also see that this trade would currently be approx. +700 pips.

Well the problem is now partially solved ! I finally got a very good and friendly programmer, Mladen, to help me out with this. As far as I can understand his explanation, this is kind of a “false” error in the sense that all errors are supposed to have a number + a description (see next post with all the errors listed). This one is due to a programming glitch which results in the correct “error” not being shown which shows up as a (0) error. What the programmer did is fix things so next time the error occurs, it will return the RIGHT number and description and I’ll finally be able to figure out what the problem is – maybe it’s because of a special parameter in the EA or it’s broker related or something else, but at least I’ll know what it is and then be able to figure out a way to correct it, if it’s possible. It might not be – remember sometimes we get the “Trade Context Busy” error for which we can’t do anything because it’s broker related and we just have to accept it as part of our trading life. But maybe it’ll be something else which can be fixed. So I’m totally grateful to Mladen for his help and next week I’ll be watching closely to see what was hiding behind that (0) error. I uploaded the new version of the EA on my transfer site, so feel free to go get it and replace it, if you’ve been getting those error messages (some people do, some don’t, it’s really a mystery case, that one).

Now if you do get the new version, you’ll need to do a few things. First make a back-up copy of your old version and save it somewhere with a new file name, just in case. The new EA has EXACTLY the same filename as the old one to ensure that no problem occurs so you don’t need to worry about anything. Simply copy the new EA in the Experts directory and that should do the trick (shut down and re-launch your MT4 platforms). If you’ve got any open trades, I thought you’d need to manage them manually, of course, because the new EA can’t “remember” what it hasn’t taken. But I just did a test myself, and by golly! The new EA remembers the old trades! Fascinating. But still, I’ll keep a close eye to make sure. I’ll test things out when markets open and confirm here if that’s all you need to do and that things worked out smoothly (or not) so if you’re unsure, wait a bit before downloading the new EA.

My next entry will be dedicated to the various Error Messages which you can get and what they mean.

UPDATE: A FOLLOW-UP TO THIS POST CAN BE FOUND HERE:

http://forexleader-forexleader.blogspot.com/2010/02/error-messages.html

Moving along nicely

October 6, 2009

Here is the situation just a bit before 17:00 EST:



As you can see, apart from an "old" trade, taken last Wednesday and 3 trades taken on Friday, the others are all since Sunday open. We opened on Sunday at approx. +220 and have just barely reached +1k.

What is NFP?

October 3, 2009

Another week has gone by ! We didn’t reach 3k at the beginning of the week, but came pretty close.

This week was a good one as well, not as spectacular as last week, but still very good. Yesterday was the 1st Friday of the month and as such, the Non-Farm Employment Change in the US (or Non-Farm Payrolls or NFP) came out and this event is considered one of the most important “news” as it can move markets with a vengeance. We did have some movement yesterday, but not as much as some other months.

Here’s what the NFP covers (quote from Forex Factory Calendar section):

Source: Bureau of labor statistics

Measures: Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;

Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the 'usual' effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);

Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;

Next Release: Nov 6, 2009

FF Notes: This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;

Why Traders Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Also Called: Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change;

Have a great week-end once again !

Sunday open

September 27, 2009

We opened at 17:00 EST @ approx. + 2k. Here is the situation at 5 minz before 20:00 EST:




Will we reach 3k tonight ??? SUSPENSE ! This is amazing.......

Friday close

September 25, 2009

Another great week comes to an end and markets have now gone to sleep. We closed at over +2k as you can see below with all but one trade on the positive side of the spectrum:



nb: I made some mistakes with my screenshots yesterday, as you might have noticed, my MT4 terminal window wasn't open high enough so the 2 first trades weren't showing (gbpjpy and eurjpy). Sorry about that !

OK so have a great week-end all and hope you have fun and relax and be there at market open !

It continues

September 24, 2009

Hehehehhhhe you wanna have some fun? Geeze, I love trading, look at this, couple hours later ;-)

Amazing

September 24, 2009

Just a few minutes later...... No comment required:

Up to 1k again and again

September 24, 2009

A few hours later.... Did I mention earlier that things were going great? Look at this, all new fresh trades just taken today (look at the time column all taken on the 24th)

False signals avoided by parameter setting

September 24, 2009

Good ! Things are going great @ approx. +800 pips at the moment. Yesterday was a « shake & bake » kinda day with the interest rate announcement for the US (which remains at 0.25%) and despite the fact that it stayed the same and WAS ANTICIPATED to stay the same, the markets rocked at 14 :00 EST – One day I’ll try to understand this news trading stuff.

But for now, I want to clarify a technical detail which some of you have asked about. I think I’ve covered this, but I’m not sure. The EA has a parameter which is set (for all pairs) to enter on the NEXT bar after a cross, not right away. I tested both settings on all the pairs, and this is the optimized setting. What this does is it will act as a kind of filter, as you can see in the example below. That’s AUDUSD yesterday afternoon on the 15:00 bar. You can see that the 14:00 bar ended up an almost doji and on that bar, the MA had crossed. Then it uncrossed, and as you can see, on the 15:00 bar, the MAs have NOT crossed because the price went back down. So that’s an example where having this setting prevents “false signals” to be taken, because the next bar acts as a confirmation of a cross.



My forward tests with my three scalpers are going better than expected. I’ve been at this (forward testing) since August 6 and won’t release them until I’m completely satisfied. The backtests gave excellent results, but I want to forward test for a length of time with which I am satisfied. Can’t remember if I mentioned this, but I “baptized” them Papa Scalper (slower TF but less DD), Mama Scalper (higher TF, bit more DD, more profit) and Baby Scalper (fastest TF, more DD, more profit).

OK so 1.5 days left of this trading week, I’ll tell you 2 week-end days off followed by 2 week days OFF just drove me almost crazy !

Japan holidays

September 22, 2009

Well 2 days of total NOTHING or just about on the markets. Yesterday (Monday) was a bank holiday in Japan and today they celebrate "Autumn equinox". Didn't think that Japan being off would cause markets to be so quiet. Total ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ !

Hope things pick up tomorrow !!!!!!

Friday close

September 19, 2009

Busy, busy, busy, + we have an infestation of WASPS !!! near the roof, anyway here’s how we ended the week yesterday:



Some of you have asked about my daily approach (which I use in conjunction with this main system), so I’ll be writing about that in an upcoming entry.

Have a great week-end all and I hope you don’t have WASPS IN YOUR ROOF !

We hit 1k again

September 16, 2009

Just a quick update - we hit the 1k mark again today !




And below you can see gbpaud, this one is really sinking fast right now !!

Beginning of week

September 8, 2009

I can't believe this is ALREADY the second week of September, boy time goes by fast !

I was very busy last week and also experienced some technical problems which caused my 2 platforms to become "desynchronized" at the beginning of the week, so I kinda had to try to see where things were headed with "one eye closed". But since the week before had closed with the trending ahead, I continued in that direction in my account. The week closed at +600 or thereabouts, so again this week I'm going trending and things (technical) seem to be back to normal. Of course yesterday was a very quiet (not to say boring) day because of the holiday here and in the states (labour day) but around 4am (I couldn't sleep) there was some serious action. Then today, well, up a little down a little. And the trending is still ahead at +350 and ranging at -350. For those who were around last year, September was a "groovy" (is that the right word??) month, very trending, so we'll see if this year is the same. I doubt it because last year this time was sort of the beginning of the financial crisis whereas now it's much quieter, but anyway we'll see. So here's where things stand for this week, apart from one trade from last week (Friday) all trades were opened sinced Sunday, so that's about +350 pips, you can't say it gets any easier, and Sunday was quiet plus yesterday was a holiday ! I also have a usdcad trade in my account, but I'll explain about that later (different approach).

sunday open

August 30, 2009

Wow things are moving fast tonight ! Trending platform opened at 17:00 at + 660 and as you can see below, at 22:00 pic just taken, we're currently at +1,000:

News spikes

August 27, 2009

Here's where things stand at 17:00 EST:



Around 14:00 this afternoon, we experienced what I call "mega-candles", big spikes all of a sudden on many pairs, which spook me, I'll tell you. Here's EURUSD:



I first went to consult the economic calendar, but saw no correlation with any "news". Then I went to google finance where I keep an eye on the stock markets. This time, I did put my finger on the cause of this sudden movement. There was an article (which I can't find anymore) saying that some news had just been published about several banks showing very bad results for the second quarter and that stocks had reacted, and well, we can deduct that currencies reacted as well. Here's a related article which gives more detail, if anyone is interested. If you don't want to read it all, there are 2 pics at the end of the article which pretty much sum everything up:

Preparing for a major bank shakeout
Rising failures and a weak economic recovery could accelerate a decades-long trend towards fewer, bigger banks.
By Colin Barr, senior writer
August 27, 2009: 2:34 PM ET

CNNMoney.com
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The problem bank list is just about the only part of the industry that's growing right now.

The sector's financial problems, outlined by regulators in excruciating detail on Thursday, could speed a shakeout that already has slashed banks' ranks by almost half over two decades.

"We could end up with a couple thousand fewer banks within a few years," said Terry Moore, managing director of consulting firm Accenture's North American banking practice. "You could say we're overbanked right now."

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Thursday that U.S. banks lost $3.7 billion in the second quarter. Bad loans are growing faster than institutions are setting aside in reserves for future losses, while total lending has declined for four straight quarters.

The list of troubled institutions -- those deemed to pose at least a "distinct possibility" of failure -- rose by more than a third during the second quarter, to 416. The FDIC doesn't reveal the names of banks on the problem list.

Anticipating rising costs of dealing with troubled banks, the FDIC on Wednesday formalized new rules for private equity firms and other investors buying failed banks. There has been a heavy trade in failed banks lately, given that 81 institutions have been closed in 2009 and dozens more are expected to be shut over the next year.

The quick pace of failures has already rewarded some prescient bankers.
"We were preparing for this moment for maybe two and a half years," said Norman C. Skalicky, CEO of Stearns Bank, a closely held St. Cloud, Minn., institution that has acquired four banks from the FDIC this year. "The biggest mistake we made was not getting ready a year earlier."

Bank failures aren't the only driver of consolidation. While bank mergers fell to 89 in the first half of 2009 from their recent peak of 153 in the first half of 2007, growth-minded banks such as First Niagara (FNFG) in Lockport, N.Y., are looking for opportunities to expand.

"We are always working with our eyes wide open," said John Koelmel, CEO of First Niagara, which last month announced the acquisition of Harleysville National (HNBC) of Philadelphia. "Our shopping cart isn't full."

The shopping spree ahead -- Moore says the U.S. could lose 2,000 banks by the end of 2012 -- is likely to claim some well known regional banks.
Colonial BancGroup of Alabama and Guaranty Financial Group of Texas have failed over the past month. Chicago condominium lender Corus Bankshares (CORS) has been on death watch for some time.

Judging by stock prices, investors are still questioning the prospects of KeyCorp (KEY, Fortune 500) of Cleveland, Marshall & Ilsley (MI) of Milwaukee and Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500) of Alabama.

But the bulk of consolidation is likely to come at the expense of smaller banks, whose numbers have been dwindling for decades in the face of deregulation and technological advances that disproportionately aided bigger competitors.

The number of banks with less than $100 million in assets has dropped by more than 5,000 since 1992, according to a study released this year by banking consultancy Celent.

Even more pronounced has been the small banks' loss of deposits. Small banks' share of the U.S. deposit market plunged to 2% last year from almost 13% in 1992, according to Celent data.

"The world is only getting more complex," Celent analyst Bart Narter wrote, noting ever-increasing regulatory paperwork and new businesses such as Internet banking. "Small banks are overwhelmed."

That said, small banks aren't going away. Policymakers such as FDIC chief Sheila Bair have emphasized their importance in lending to small businesses, and studies have found they tend to pay better deposit rates than bigger rivals. The FDIC on Wednesday extended a program that some community bankers credit with helping them to compete with the biggest banks.

And the smallest banks have generally performed better during the financial crisis than their bigger rivals. Banks with less than $100 million in assets make up more than a third of the FDIC's problem bank list, but have accounted for just 11 of 81 bank failures so far this year.

Like their bigger rivals, community banks are now enjoying stronger profit margins in the second quarter, as the spread between the rates banks pay depositors and those they charge to lend to borrowers widened.

"This is good news for community banks, since three-fourths of their revenues come from net interest income," Bair said Thursday.

Going strong

August 26, 2009

Well, as expected we're still going strong. Pic taken just a bit before 18:00 EST:

We're flyin' !

August 25, 2009

Well look at this (pic just taken):



And what's even better, you'll notice there are only 9 trades taken, so one is missing here (because of an error message). But it was taken in my own account, it's gbpaud. I eventually got out of this one at +300 personnally, but it is currently at +322 as you can see here, this is my real account, search for the red arrow, you'll see where it entered:



So in the total balance, you should add +322 right now, for a total of + 1,224 ! I keep saying this over and over, but these trades aren't even 1 week old.... And as I'm typing this the +902 is now +973..........

Sunday open

August 23, 2009

Well last week was pretty slow but we managed to close on Friday at just under +500, as you can see below:



I've been extremely busy with, among other things, forward testing my scalpers. I metnioned it before that I have done some massive back-testing and am now forward testing, and I must say I'm "impressing myself", that is, the results are even better forward than back - and they were already impressive in back-tests. I'll keep you posted as to the progress and as soon as I'm truly satisfied, I'll upload them to my blog.

Alright less than 5 minutes to market open (at last !!!) I find week-ends SO LONG sometimes, you wouldn't believe it.

Let's wish ourselves another GREAT WEEK OF TRADING !

24 hours later

August 17, 2009

Well, what can I say? It just can’t get any easier than that. I just took this pic a couple of minutes ago (trending platform):

Week opening

August 16, 2009

Well, even though I had to start everything from scratch last week, we closed the week on Friday with about +250 trending and -250 ranging.

Markets opend a little earlier and currently trending is at +285 and ranging at -380, so I'm still going with the trending in my account at the moment and will watch and see what happens.

Here's the trending right this very minute:

Technical glitches

August 11, 2009

Major electrical problems here the past few days grrrrrrr, had to have an Expert Electrician come and do things in our back yard then it was my modem doing stupid things like resetting then it was my internet provider - had to call 3 times and speak with 3 different technicians who diagnosed 3 DIFFERNT problems. Fortunately, everything seems to be fine NOW (can you feel I'm a tad little tweeny bit TENSE ?!?)

In the trending platform, if everything went well at your end, you should currently be in 3 trades since the beginning of the week: eurgbp long, usdjpy short and audusd short, all in very nice profit. I missed all three because of the "no power" situation, which caused the trades in which I was earlier (last week) to NOT close and of course, no new trades were taken.

So now that everything is back to normal, I'll wait and see where things are headed, just like any of you who would be just starting. See, even though you've got problems, or error messages or electrical problems or whatever, you can ALWAYS restart as markets are constantly moving. It does set you back a bit, but as I keep saying, there will always be another trade tomorrow (yes, yes, except on Fridays !!).

Keep you posted,

Friday close

Another one is now behind us, I can’t believe how time really flies. As you will have seen if you’re following this system, it was another trending week, and a good one at that, except maybe for audusd which went totally berserk in the middle of the week. But now the difference between the 2 platforms has narrowed substantially, trending closing at +160 and ranging at –250. I’m still personally in one trade – the last one which was taken at 15:00 this afternoon (Friday) currently at –1, with all my other trades closed.

I wasn’t as active in my blog this week as I am doing some collaborative work on another project (back testing and forward testing) for a third party. And next week will be the same, but I’m sure you won’t mind, I do have a big mouth and tend to babble anyway hehehehh. But be assured I will drop by a few times to let you know how things are going. For those who want to know “how to” see where things are headed, I currently still have 1 open trade based on the trending platform, and will open the week with that platform since the difference between the 2 is still +200 BUT as I mentioned, the difference has narrowed so depending on what I see at the beginning of the week, I’ll either continue with the trending or shut down my bots if I see the difference narrowing further and wait till I see clear direction again.

Have a super great week-end all and see you at market open at 17:00 EST sharp !!!

Beauty !

August 4, 2009




Can't say any thing else but....... what a beauty !

New week ahead

Aug 3, 2009

Another glorious week ahead of us.

The trending platform opened yesterday (Sunday) with a balance of +460 (and the ranging was around -560). Now Monday, when I got up about 15 minutes ago, here is where things are at (taken @ 11:52 am EST):




... no comments required ;-)

How do you manage SLs?

July 30, 2009

How do you manage SLs?

As you know, entries are easy because they’re automatic. No decision whatsoever on your part. The difficult part (if you decide to manage your trades once they’re taken) is the exit.

The very first thing I do once a trade is in profit is I wait for it to be at a reasonable distance from my entry and then I move my SL to BE + 1 (Break-Even + 1 pip) BE because the trade is now secured and +1 simply because it makes me feel good to know that this trade will at least have made me a pip. Now, what do I mean by “reasonable distance”? This will vary depending on the pair - closer for less volatile, farther for more. For instance, for audusd I'd go with 15 and gbpjpy 30.The advantage of doing this is you rapidly secure your trade. The disadvantage is if you do this too early, price might come and take out your SL and then continue on its grand ascension to +300 pips leaving you sorry (but at 1 pip, not zero, let’s be positive now!)

Then a bit later, I’ll move my SL in this way:

First I look at S/R lines and often I’ll move my SL under or over these.

If I don’t have clear S/R lines (that happens) then I also look at the COG (Center of Gravity) to get a feel of general direction for that specific pair. You can see it instantly with this indicator. I check where the price is in relation to the COG and decide on an SL depending on various factors. Here in my example below, you can see I moved it directly on the pivot line (white) because I didn’t have any good S/R lines:



You can see by the COG that this pair is going up and it * might * come close to the pivot but there's a good chance it'll continue going up before it reaches this point.

So that trade has already put 123 pips into my pocket (it’s currently at +190). Support lines (blue) have now appeared (a few hours later) so what I’ll do it move my SL right under there at 1.7921 for a secured profit of +167 pips and then "let her fly" !

FAQ

July 29, 2009

Alright the FAQ is now available. Simply click FAQ on the right menu. After reading it, you’ll understand what I’m writing below.

So as I wrote on Monday, nothing much was happening and both platforms were about even (a few pips here, minus a few pips there). Then when I got up Tuesday morning (well noon, I should say) the trending was up by about +300 and the ranging down by about the same. So that would be your cue for a go or a “continue” if you were already trading the trending. I was actually a bit late because I got up so late, but that’s life. In the FAQ, I mentioned about a 200 difference between the 2 platforms was usually good enough, depending on market volatility, day of the week, etc. OK, then today (Wednesday) the trending is currently (14:27 EST time) up at +600 as you can see below.


Upcoming FAQ

July 27, 2009

Nothing much happening today on the markets YAWN ! lol.

Today I worked on the FAQ and am happy to report things are going well. I still need for the people who sent in questions for which I answered to give me the "OK" to post their questions and probably tomorrow I'll have the first version of the FAQ on here. I think it'll help many of you to understand the approach better.

Other than that I finally did upload my famous pip calculator and cost of trade Excel spreadsheet to the download link, so go get it and have fun!

Looks like this (with prices updating in real time which I find mucho cool heheh):

Back from vacation !!!

July 25, 2009

Back from vacation, phew! What a week !

Just started answering emails etc. I’ve still got a lot to do, but wanted to at least post to my blog.

Last week-end, when we decided to travel, my husband made me promise I wouldn’t bring my lap-top along. This took A LOT of negotiations. I’ll tell you, but I finally gave in. If you’ve read up to here, you know I’m a trading addict so a whole week away was like not even a possibility. But I do have a live outside trading, and I keep telling you guys you need to be patient, there will be another trade opportunity tomorrow (etc etc) so I took a bit of my own medicine and left WITHOUT (I still can’t believe I did it) my lap-top. And I made it !

When markets opened last Sunday, I was going for a trending week and took 2 trades (the gbpusd and gbpchf shorts) not knowing I was going to leave. So I put those 2 on trailing stops (25 each) and turned the bots off when we left. They went into profit. Now after analyzing (eyeballing I should say) what happened during the week, my call for trending wasn’t the best call of my life. It seems Tuesday and especially Wednesday were up-down-up-down causing re-crosses (those I totally dislike) where the trending would have had losses. But Thursday seemed good trending, even extremely good, probably recuperating the losses or coming close. Then Friday is unclear with the trending platform closing at –18 and the ranging one at –40.

I’m so glad I’m back (although I did enjoy the vacation, very nice lake, etc.). I’ll get some laundry done and stuff like that and hope to write up on how to manage trades a bit later, as I’ve mentioned before leaving. I have also been redoing massive retesting in the last few weeks (because I like to test, re-test and then re-test) and the results are outstanding. We’ll be entering in an excellent period somewhere in August (end of) or beginning of Sept, so stay tuned. Why am I saying this? Well because I do my tests on “periods” of the year, and the period for which I did the most testing is Aug to Jan. I’ll continue testing and optimizing for the period Jan to July (with the new data now collected for 2009 - excellent results as well so far) and let you all know about the results.

Phew, ok, I’m off. I’m so happy, I’ll be seeing you (manner of speaking) at market open TOMORROW !!!! Yayyyyyyyyy!

Back up again

July 20, 2009

Well FX Open still weren't "open" (no pun intended) yesterday at 21h (EST) so I gave up on them and went back to my former broker.

The good thing is restarting all over again just takes minutes because of the templates and set files. So here we go again, a new week starts and after seeing which platform was ahead, I didn't hesitate and I'm going trending for the week. We'll see how it plays out. For now, we've got 4 open trades since market open, all in the green:

No connection...

July 18, 2009 Saturday afternoon

I had problems AGAIN with my broker disconnecting, this time for 9 hours on Thursday. And today, same thing, I can’t access my accounts because of no connection. If I don’t get a live feed before tomorrow noon, I’m going to find another broker and start all over again. This is becoming quite annoying, to say the least.

This means I had 4 trades open much too late, so my data is, once again, not good. However, we can still see the overall picture. The first 3 days of the week continued to be very much trending, but the last 2 were mixed. The ranging actually did better these last 2 days. So next week is uncertain, but we'll see what happens.

In the meantime, I’m preparing something about how to manage trades and also a bit of clarification on to how to use the observation platforms. I’m also in the process of preparing a FAQ based on questions from the readership. I’m also doing some tests, continuing my tweaking for the scalping approach plus we might travel for a few days. In other words, bizzi bizzi bizzi and progressing nicely.

Alright back at market open. Have a good one all.

We're flying !

July 15, 2009

Told you July was something else. This is what I just woke up to...

Up at +700 after only 2 days

July 14, 2009

Well my moving average problems don’t seem to be as bad as I thought – they might not yet be completely in sync but I checked the values with my other broker and it’s close enough. As you can see, apart from the last 3 trades (recent) all is well, for a current total of +707.


And I stress these are only trades from yesterday, so that’s 350 pips/day.

Update (at 6 pm):

It just touched +800...

Broker problems again

July 13, 2009

Yesterday, my broker disconnected and STAYED THIS WAY FOR 11 CONSECUTIVE HOURS! Do you know what this means? Well it means I’m missing 11 hours worth of data and all of my moving averages are s-c-r-e-w-e-d grrrrrrrrrr. Bad day.

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This is gbpchf I think, it doesn’t matter, all the pairs have this 11-hour gap. I’ll need to wait a couple of days for things to get back to normal. The trending platform still seems to be ahead of the ranging but I’ll have to wait for the averages to even out before I can see clearly.

Not in a good mood, so I’ll end here.

Choppy open

July 12, 2009

Choppy open tonight hehehe up, down, up, down... Sunday evenings are sometimes full of special effects BADABOUM! then sometimes Sundays are like this, choppy, choppy, choppy as markets are saying "Doh, I dunno".

We're still up +200 pips in the trending platform so we'll wait as things unfold.

Happy trading to all for the upcoming week and welcome to all the new members of the "gang".

Stop loss or no stop loss – that is the question…

July 10, 2009

Another beautiful trading week comes to an end as we finish once again in nice profit.

People sometimes wonder about the question I put up there, and I’d like to write a bit about this. This applies to any trading system, not just the one we’re trading here.

Now, there are 2 aspects to stop losses:

1. You place a stop loss in case the market goes against your trade. It eventually gets hit. You take the loss with dignity. You were wrong, period (it happens). You accept this fact.
2. No sooner than seconds after you’ve just told yourself the above, the market turns back in your direction and (a) not only brings the price back to where you entered (you would have now been break-even) but even more insulting, (b) it goes past your entry ! (you would now be into profit).

So not only did you take a loss, you also LOST an opportunity to make this potential profit which is now staring you in the face. Everybody should hate stop losses!!!

After a few times of being humiliated (not to mention ROBBED), you decide that next time, you simply WON’T put a stop loss and just take the drawdown until it comes back, since it seems it always does, you might even take another trade in the same direction to “cost average”.

But guess what? THIS TIME, it never comes back. And had you put a SL, you would have been taken out at, say –80 where now you’re looking at a double loss now totalling –663 and your margin is shrinking fast…

Others will place very small stop losses thinking they won’t hurt cause they’ll be so small. Problem here is they’ll constantly get hit by wicks or fast market movements.

So what to do about stop losses? Well, for our system, we’ve got stop losses on all our pairs which I have optimized, as you know. Once a trade is in profit in your account, you can then adjust the stop loss to your liking. The initial SLs are there more as protection for what I wrote in this forum some time ago:

About the question of using SLs (Stop Losses) or not, it all depends on your strategy, of course, but I would advise to ALWAYS put one, even it it's very far, because the following can happen:

1. You lose power due to all sorts of reasons for a long period
2. You lose your internet connection for a long period
3. Your broker disconnects for lengthy periods of time

4. Your computer dies on you and it takes 3 days to get it repaired and you live in a remote area where you don't have easy access to another computer.
5. You are the victim of a natural catastrophe (big storm, earthquake, flood) and can't access your account for a long period

Being in a trade which goes against you and not being able to access your account is no fun, but being in this situation and NOT HAVING A STOP LOSS in place will make matters much worse. So, just put one to make sure you don't lose your shirt. We never know what can happen.

I didn’t come up with the idea, I had read it in a forum myself a few years ago and I still believe it’s good advice. You’ll do whatever you want in your account, because it’s YOUR account. But remember we never know what can happen. I live in a very quiet place, not a “danger” area at all but in the last decade we’ve had a major earthquake AND a major flood (these things happen like once in every 100,000 years here) but see they did happen. So please, think about it if you’re inclined to not put stop losses.

Hey HAVE A GREAT WEEK-END EVERYONE thanks for all your nice emails/comments and SEE YOU AT MARKET OPEN !!!!

New account going strong

July 9, 2009

For those of you just starting out, this is what your screen should look like right now (14:00 EST).



This is the trending platform with my new demo and you can see from the "time" column that these trades have only been since yesterday (1 yesterday and 6 today) and we're already well above +600.

Now, if you manage your trades in your account like I do, you might have exited gbpaud when it started showing signs of upwards exhaustion. I did yesterday for +110 (it's currently up at +366 so it might have been better to trail the stop, but I'm always happy to pocket pips (pip pocket!) for any amount.

So you can't say this is hard, really you simply do nothing and less than 2 days later you're up +600 pips... Did I mention I love trading forex ;-)

Peace

1,350 pips since yesterday!

July 8, 2009

Did you see these JUMBO candles today?



It’s unfortunate (I would use another word if I wasn’t polite) that my demo expired 2 days ago because I would probably be showing you an all time RECORD. I made the calculations by hand (and you can check for yourself using the results I posted just before the expiration Tuesday) and this is what the trending platform would show:

Eurgbp: +124
Gbpusd: +410
Gbpjpy: +994 <--- !!!
Usdjpy: +365
Eurjpy: +631
Gbpchf: +224
Gbpaud: +137 (new buy) I’m currently in this one with new demo
Usdchf: +34
Audusd: +139
Eurusd: +49

For a total of: +3,107 pips !!! MaMaMia...

Considering this is only 7 trading days (since June 30) that's a cool +443 pips/day average... (or $4,430.00/day on standard lots, or $31,010.00/week, or $124,040.00/month, or... well you get the picture ;-)) Do the math for one year hehehe...

New account

July 7, 2009

Well just after I posted that screenshot, my trending platform demo EXPIRED ! (strange that the ranging one didn't expire as I had opened them at the same time, but who knows with brokers)

So anyway, I have to restart once again, so here's what your screen should look like if you've just started about 3 hours ago (new trending platform):



So you can see, we're still trending away...

Beautiful wake-up

July 7, 2009

I woke up this morning around 11 :00 am to a screen which once again was hitting the +1,600 mark. And the gbpaud sell was at +130. I told you when this one goes right, it’s worth it. I adjusted my SL as it was starting to go up a bit, it got hit, and I pocketed +112, all in all I came out BE with this one (recrosses included). It’s currently at +1 but looking to loose speed on the upside.

We also had a few recrosses with eurusd and usdchf which have been playing hide-and-seek, but apart from these small losses (you might have come out at BE) the overall platform is still doing great as you can see.



I’m still working on my scalping strategy to fill the waiting time and I want to make it as simple and straightforward as possible as well as profitable, of course this goes without saying. I’m currently up about +600 pips (592 to be exact) since June 18 (14 trading days), so that’s about 42 pips/day which is a nice addition. So that’s what I’m working on these days, in between levels of Zuma. I’m also keeping an eye on the Pair Difference indicator, but so far it isn’t “speaking” to me clearly.

Alright, back to the graphs.

Pair difference

July 6, 2009 later

I hope everyone took some nice profits since the move at ++ 1,600.

Everything is going well with the platform still showing +1,000 except for gbpaud which has been trying to get funny on us and had 2 recrosses. This one has a mind of its own and I’d advise you not to trade it in your account in the beginning. Leave the bot on in your observation platform but turn it off in your account. It does these recrosses that’ll make you say religious words and frustrate you, but once it starts to fly in the right direction, wow, it’s a spectacular thing to see.

I stumbled on an indicator today called Pair Difference (well I stumbled on it in my own directory while searching for something else, I must have had it for a long time). See pic below:



You’ve got 8 pairs on this, the 2 missing are the CHFs (can only input 8 pairs in the indi).

Here are the colours:

Audusd: white
Eurgbp: yellow
Eurusd: red
Eurjpy: purple
Gbpaud (the brat!): gray
Gbpjpy: olive
Gbpusd: lime
Usdjpy: aqua

I don’t know how it can relate to our platforms and I’m not even sure what I’m looking at but notice something happened on July 2 (last Thursday). I remember there was big movement around 16:00 (I spoke about this on here) probably due to profit taking before the US holiday but I’m not sure it has something to do with this. For a moment (this chart is the 1H bars) the pairs all seemed to “not” have any difference and then they started parting again.

I’ll need to look into it more closely in case it can give us an additional cue as to when markets are changing direction (always looking to find an extra edge!). I’ll upload it to the download link in a second. If you hover your mouse over the lines on your screen you’ll see what pair it is.

Have a look again...

July 6, 2009

Just got up - it's 10:30 am here. Look at my screen !

July is a crazy month !

July 5, 2009 yet again not so many minutes later…

Heheheheh….

Didn’t I tell you that July was a crazy month?

Some of you are facing a 10,000 $ profit right in your face right now. Less than one week of work, this is too good.

If you’re not convinced, I’m posting these figures in real time so anyone can check their charts to see I’m not making anything up. It just works….

Trending, trending

July 5, 21:37 a few minutes later, and it doesn't stop !

Look :



Do you realize that these are MINI lots here? Those of you who trade standard lots have 9,000$ (that's NINE THOUSAND DOLLARS)in front of your screen right now (double if you're trading in euros!) and these trades where only taken since last Monday, so not even a WEEK old !

Dear God....

July 5, a bit later

It's currently 21:26....

Look at this! Tell me why anyone would want to do anything else than trade forex ??? The dance continues...