xr86yp295m Forex Leader: August 2009

sunday open

August 30, 2009

Wow things are moving fast tonight ! Trending platform opened at 17:00 at + 660 and as you can see below, at 22:00 pic just taken, we're currently at +1,000:

News spikes

August 27, 2009

Here's where things stand at 17:00 EST:



Around 14:00 this afternoon, we experienced what I call "mega-candles", big spikes all of a sudden on many pairs, which spook me, I'll tell you. Here's EURUSD:



I first went to consult the economic calendar, but saw no correlation with any "news". Then I went to google finance where I keep an eye on the stock markets. This time, I did put my finger on the cause of this sudden movement. There was an article (which I can't find anymore) saying that some news had just been published about several banks showing very bad results for the second quarter and that stocks had reacted, and well, we can deduct that currencies reacted as well. Here's a related article which gives more detail, if anyone is interested. If you don't want to read it all, there are 2 pics at the end of the article which pretty much sum everything up:

Preparing for a major bank shakeout
Rising failures and a weak economic recovery could accelerate a decades-long trend towards fewer, bigger banks.
By Colin Barr, senior writer
August 27, 2009: 2:34 PM ET

CNNMoney.com
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The problem bank list is just about the only part of the industry that's growing right now.

The sector's financial problems, outlined by regulators in excruciating detail on Thursday, could speed a shakeout that already has slashed banks' ranks by almost half over two decades.

"We could end up with a couple thousand fewer banks within a few years," said Terry Moore, managing director of consulting firm Accenture's North American banking practice. "You could say we're overbanked right now."

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Thursday that U.S. banks lost $3.7 billion in the second quarter. Bad loans are growing faster than institutions are setting aside in reserves for future losses, while total lending has declined for four straight quarters.

The list of troubled institutions -- those deemed to pose at least a "distinct possibility" of failure -- rose by more than a third during the second quarter, to 416. The FDIC doesn't reveal the names of banks on the problem list.

Anticipating rising costs of dealing with troubled banks, the FDIC on Wednesday formalized new rules for private equity firms and other investors buying failed banks. There has been a heavy trade in failed banks lately, given that 81 institutions have been closed in 2009 and dozens more are expected to be shut over the next year.

The quick pace of failures has already rewarded some prescient bankers.
"We were preparing for this moment for maybe two and a half years," said Norman C. Skalicky, CEO of Stearns Bank, a closely held St. Cloud, Minn., institution that has acquired four banks from the FDIC this year. "The biggest mistake we made was not getting ready a year earlier."

Bank failures aren't the only driver of consolidation. While bank mergers fell to 89 in the first half of 2009 from their recent peak of 153 in the first half of 2007, growth-minded banks such as First Niagara (FNFG) in Lockport, N.Y., are looking for opportunities to expand.

"We are always working with our eyes wide open," said John Koelmel, CEO of First Niagara, which last month announced the acquisition of Harleysville National (HNBC) of Philadelphia. "Our shopping cart isn't full."

The shopping spree ahead -- Moore says the U.S. could lose 2,000 banks by the end of 2012 -- is likely to claim some well known regional banks.
Colonial BancGroup of Alabama and Guaranty Financial Group of Texas have failed over the past month. Chicago condominium lender Corus Bankshares (CORS) has been on death watch for some time.

Judging by stock prices, investors are still questioning the prospects of KeyCorp (KEY, Fortune 500) of Cleveland, Marshall & Ilsley (MI) of Milwaukee and Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500) of Alabama.

But the bulk of consolidation is likely to come at the expense of smaller banks, whose numbers have been dwindling for decades in the face of deregulation and technological advances that disproportionately aided bigger competitors.

The number of banks with less than $100 million in assets has dropped by more than 5,000 since 1992, according to a study released this year by banking consultancy Celent.

Even more pronounced has been the small banks' loss of deposits. Small banks' share of the U.S. deposit market plunged to 2% last year from almost 13% in 1992, according to Celent data.

"The world is only getting more complex," Celent analyst Bart Narter wrote, noting ever-increasing regulatory paperwork and new businesses such as Internet banking. "Small banks are overwhelmed."

That said, small banks aren't going away. Policymakers such as FDIC chief Sheila Bair have emphasized their importance in lending to small businesses, and studies have found they tend to pay better deposit rates than bigger rivals. The FDIC on Wednesday extended a program that some community bankers credit with helping them to compete with the biggest banks.

And the smallest banks have generally performed better during the financial crisis than their bigger rivals. Banks with less than $100 million in assets make up more than a third of the FDIC's problem bank list, but have accounted for just 11 of 81 bank failures so far this year.

Like their bigger rivals, community banks are now enjoying stronger profit margins in the second quarter, as the spread between the rates banks pay depositors and those they charge to lend to borrowers widened.

"This is good news for community banks, since three-fourths of their revenues come from net interest income," Bair said Thursday.

Going strong

August 26, 2009

Well, as expected we're still going strong. Pic taken just a bit before 18:00 EST:

We're flyin' !

August 25, 2009

Well look at this (pic just taken):



And what's even better, you'll notice there are only 9 trades taken, so one is missing here (because of an error message). But it was taken in my own account, it's gbpaud. I eventually got out of this one at +300 personnally, but it is currently at +322 as you can see here, this is my real account, search for the red arrow, you'll see where it entered:



So in the total balance, you should add +322 right now, for a total of + 1,224 ! I keep saying this over and over, but these trades aren't even 1 week old.... And as I'm typing this the +902 is now +973..........

Sunday open

August 23, 2009

Well last week was pretty slow but we managed to close on Friday at just under +500, as you can see below:



I've been extremely busy with, among other things, forward testing my scalpers. I metnioned it before that I have done some massive back-testing and am now forward testing, and I must say I'm "impressing myself", that is, the results are even better forward than back - and they were already impressive in back-tests. I'll keep you posted as to the progress and as soon as I'm truly satisfied, I'll upload them to my blog.

Alright less than 5 minutes to market open (at last !!!) I find week-ends SO LONG sometimes, you wouldn't believe it.

Let's wish ourselves another GREAT WEEK OF TRADING !

24 hours later

August 17, 2009

Well, what can I say? It just can’t get any easier than that. I just took this pic a couple of minutes ago (trending platform):

Week opening

August 16, 2009

Well, even though I had to start everything from scratch last week, we closed the week on Friday with about +250 trending and -250 ranging.

Markets opend a little earlier and currently trending is at +285 and ranging at -380, so I'm still going with the trending in my account at the moment and will watch and see what happens.

Here's the trending right this very minute:

Technical glitches

August 11, 2009

Major electrical problems here the past few days grrrrrrr, had to have an Expert Electrician come and do things in our back yard then it was my modem doing stupid things like resetting then it was my internet provider - had to call 3 times and speak with 3 different technicians who diagnosed 3 DIFFERNT problems. Fortunately, everything seems to be fine NOW (can you feel I'm a tad little tweeny bit TENSE ?!?)

In the trending platform, if everything went well at your end, you should currently be in 3 trades since the beginning of the week: eurgbp long, usdjpy short and audusd short, all in very nice profit. I missed all three because of the "no power" situation, which caused the trades in which I was earlier (last week) to NOT close and of course, no new trades were taken.

So now that everything is back to normal, I'll wait and see where things are headed, just like any of you who would be just starting. See, even though you've got problems, or error messages or electrical problems or whatever, you can ALWAYS restart as markets are constantly moving. It does set you back a bit, but as I keep saying, there will always be another trade tomorrow (yes, yes, except on Fridays !!).

Keep you posted,

Friday close

Another one is now behind us, I can’t believe how time really flies. As you will have seen if you’re following this system, it was another trending week, and a good one at that, except maybe for audusd which went totally berserk in the middle of the week. But now the difference between the 2 platforms has narrowed substantially, trending closing at +160 and ranging at –250. I’m still personally in one trade – the last one which was taken at 15:00 this afternoon (Friday) currently at –1, with all my other trades closed.

I wasn’t as active in my blog this week as I am doing some collaborative work on another project (back testing and forward testing) for a third party. And next week will be the same, but I’m sure you won’t mind, I do have a big mouth and tend to babble anyway hehehehh. But be assured I will drop by a few times to let you know how things are going. For those who want to know “how to” see where things are headed, I currently still have 1 open trade based on the trending platform, and will open the week with that platform since the difference between the 2 is still +200 BUT as I mentioned, the difference has narrowed so depending on what I see at the beginning of the week, I’ll either continue with the trending or shut down my bots if I see the difference narrowing further and wait till I see clear direction again.

Have a super great week-end all and see you at market open at 17:00 EST sharp !!!

Beauty !

August 4, 2009




Can't say any thing else but....... what a beauty !

New week ahead

Aug 3, 2009

Another glorious week ahead of us.

The trending platform opened yesterday (Sunday) with a balance of +460 (and the ranging was around -560). Now Monday, when I got up about 15 minutes ago, here is where things are at (taken @ 11:52 am EST):




... no comments required ;-)