xr86yp295m Forex Leader: July 2009

How do you manage SLs?

July 30, 2009

How do you manage SLs?

As you know, entries are easy because they’re automatic. No decision whatsoever on your part. The difficult part (if you decide to manage your trades once they’re taken) is the exit.

The very first thing I do once a trade is in profit is I wait for it to be at a reasonable distance from my entry and then I move my SL to BE + 1 (Break-Even + 1 pip) BE because the trade is now secured and +1 simply because it makes me feel good to know that this trade will at least have made me a pip. Now, what do I mean by “reasonable distance”? This will vary depending on the pair - closer for less volatile, farther for more. For instance, for audusd I'd go with 15 and gbpjpy 30.The advantage of doing this is you rapidly secure your trade. The disadvantage is if you do this too early, price might come and take out your SL and then continue on its grand ascension to +300 pips leaving you sorry (but at 1 pip, not zero, let’s be positive now!)

Then a bit later, I’ll move my SL in this way:

First I look at S/R lines and often I’ll move my SL under or over these.

If I don’t have clear S/R lines (that happens) then I also look at the COG (Center of Gravity) to get a feel of general direction for that specific pair. You can see it instantly with this indicator. I check where the price is in relation to the COG and decide on an SL depending on various factors. Here in my example below, you can see I moved it directly on the pivot line (white) because I didn’t have any good S/R lines:



You can see by the COG that this pair is going up and it * might * come close to the pivot but there's a good chance it'll continue going up before it reaches this point.

So that trade has already put 123 pips into my pocket (it’s currently at +190). Support lines (blue) have now appeared (a few hours later) so what I’ll do it move my SL right under there at 1.7921 for a secured profit of +167 pips and then "let her fly" !

FAQ

July 29, 2009

Alright the FAQ is now available. Simply click FAQ on the right menu. After reading it, you’ll understand what I’m writing below.

So as I wrote on Monday, nothing much was happening and both platforms were about even (a few pips here, minus a few pips there). Then when I got up Tuesday morning (well noon, I should say) the trending was up by about +300 and the ranging down by about the same. So that would be your cue for a go or a “continue” if you were already trading the trending. I was actually a bit late because I got up so late, but that’s life. In the FAQ, I mentioned about a 200 difference between the 2 platforms was usually good enough, depending on market volatility, day of the week, etc. OK, then today (Wednesday) the trending is currently (14:27 EST time) up at +600 as you can see below.


Upcoming FAQ

July 27, 2009

Nothing much happening today on the markets YAWN ! lol.

Today I worked on the FAQ and am happy to report things are going well. I still need for the people who sent in questions for which I answered to give me the "OK" to post their questions and probably tomorrow I'll have the first version of the FAQ on here. I think it'll help many of you to understand the approach better.

Other than that I finally did upload my famous pip calculator and cost of trade Excel spreadsheet to the download link, so go get it and have fun!

Looks like this (with prices updating in real time which I find mucho cool heheh):

Back from vacation !!!

July 25, 2009

Back from vacation, phew! What a week !

Just started answering emails etc. I’ve still got a lot to do, but wanted to at least post to my blog.

Last week-end, when we decided to travel, my husband made me promise I wouldn’t bring my lap-top along. This took A LOT of negotiations. I’ll tell you, but I finally gave in. If you’ve read up to here, you know I’m a trading addict so a whole week away was like not even a possibility. But I do have a live outside trading, and I keep telling you guys you need to be patient, there will be another trade opportunity tomorrow (etc etc) so I took a bit of my own medicine and left WITHOUT (I still can’t believe I did it) my lap-top. And I made it !

When markets opened last Sunday, I was going for a trending week and took 2 trades (the gbpusd and gbpchf shorts) not knowing I was going to leave. So I put those 2 on trailing stops (25 each) and turned the bots off when we left. They went into profit. Now after analyzing (eyeballing I should say) what happened during the week, my call for trending wasn’t the best call of my life. It seems Tuesday and especially Wednesday were up-down-up-down causing re-crosses (those I totally dislike) where the trending would have had losses. But Thursday seemed good trending, even extremely good, probably recuperating the losses or coming close. Then Friday is unclear with the trending platform closing at –18 and the ranging one at –40.

I’m so glad I’m back (although I did enjoy the vacation, very nice lake, etc.). I’ll get some laundry done and stuff like that and hope to write up on how to manage trades a bit later, as I’ve mentioned before leaving. I have also been redoing massive retesting in the last few weeks (because I like to test, re-test and then re-test) and the results are outstanding. We’ll be entering in an excellent period somewhere in August (end of) or beginning of Sept, so stay tuned. Why am I saying this? Well because I do my tests on “periods” of the year, and the period for which I did the most testing is Aug to Jan. I’ll continue testing and optimizing for the period Jan to July (with the new data now collected for 2009 - excellent results as well so far) and let you all know about the results.

Phew, ok, I’m off. I’m so happy, I’ll be seeing you (manner of speaking) at market open TOMORROW !!!! Yayyyyyyyyy!

Back up again

July 20, 2009

Well FX Open still weren't "open" (no pun intended) yesterday at 21h (EST) so I gave up on them and went back to my former broker.

The good thing is restarting all over again just takes minutes because of the templates and set files. So here we go again, a new week starts and after seeing which platform was ahead, I didn't hesitate and I'm going trending for the week. We'll see how it plays out. For now, we've got 4 open trades since market open, all in the green:

No connection...

July 18, 2009 Saturday afternoon

I had problems AGAIN with my broker disconnecting, this time for 9 hours on Thursday. And today, same thing, I can’t access my accounts because of no connection. If I don’t get a live feed before tomorrow noon, I’m going to find another broker and start all over again. This is becoming quite annoying, to say the least.

This means I had 4 trades open much too late, so my data is, once again, not good. However, we can still see the overall picture. The first 3 days of the week continued to be very much trending, but the last 2 were mixed. The ranging actually did better these last 2 days. So next week is uncertain, but we'll see what happens.

In the meantime, I’m preparing something about how to manage trades and also a bit of clarification on to how to use the observation platforms. I’m also in the process of preparing a FAQ based on questions from the readership. I’m also doing some tests, continuing my tweaking for the scalping approach plus we might travel for a few days. In other words, bizzi bizzi bizzi and progressing nicely.

Alright back at market open. Have a good one all.

We're flying !

July 15, 2009

Told you July was something else. This is what I just woke up to...

Up at +700 after only 2 days

July 14, 2009

Well my moving average problems don’t seem to be as bad as I thought – they might not yet be completely in sync but I checked the values with my other broker and it’s close enough. As you can see, apart from the last 3 trades (recent) all is well, for a current total of +707.


And I stress these are only trades from yesterday, so that’s 350 pips/day.

Update (at 6 pm):

It just touched +800...

Broker problems again

July 13, 2009

Yesterday, my broker disconnected and STAYED THIS WAY FOR 11 CONSECUTIVE HOURS! Do you know what this means? Well it means I’m missing 11 hours worth of data and all of my moving averages are s-c-r-e-w-e-d grrrrrrrrrr. Bad day.

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This is gbpchf I think, it doesn’t matter, all the pairs have this 11-hour gap. I’ll need to wait a couple of days for things to get back to normal. The trending platform still seems to be ahead of the ranging but I’ll have to wait for the averages to even out before I can see clearly.

Not in a good mood, so I’ll end here.

Choppy open

July 12, 2009

Choppy open tonight hehehe up, down, up, down... Sunday evenings are sometimes full of special effects BADABOUM! then sometimes Sundays are like this, choppy, choppy, choppy as markets are saying "Doh, I dunno".

We're still up +200 pips in the trending platform so we'll wait as things unfold.

Happy trading to all for the upcoming week and welcome to all the new members of the "gang".

Stop loss or no stop loss – that is the question…

July 10, 2009

Another beautiful trading week comes to an end as we finish once again in nice profit.

People sometimes wonder about the question I put up there, and I’d like to write a bit about this. This applies to any trading system, not just the one we’re trading here.

Now, there are 2 aspects to stop losses:

1. You place a stop loss in case the market goes against your trade. It eventually gets hit. You take the loss with dignity. You were wrong, period (it happens). You accept this fact.
2. No sooner than seconds after you’ve just told yourself the above, the market turns back in your direction and (a) not only brings the price back to where you entered (you would have now been break-even) but even more insulting, (b) it goes past your entry ! (you would now be into profit).

So not only did you take a loss, you also LOST an opportunity to make this potential profit which is now staring you in the face. Everybody should hate stop losses!!!

After a few times of being humiliated (not to mention ROBBED), you decide that next time, you simply WON’T put a stop loss and just take the drawdown until it comes back, since it seems it always does, you might even take another trade in the same direction to “cost average”.

But guess what? THIS TIME, it never comes back. And had you put a SL, you would have been taken out at, say –80 where now you’re looking at a double loss now totalling –663 and your margin is shrinking fast…

Others will place very small stop losses thinking they won’t hurt cause they’ll be so small. Problem here is they’ll constantly get hit by wicks or fast market movements.

So what to do about stop losses? Well, for our system, we’ve got stop losses on all our pairs which I have optimized, as you know. Once a trade is in profit in your account, you can then adjust the stop loss to your liking. The initial SLs are there more as protection for what I wrote in this forum some time ago:

About the question of using SLs (Stop Losses) or not, it all depends on your strategy, of course, but I would advise to ALWAYS put one, even it it's very far, because the following can happen:

1. You lose power due to all sorts of reasons for a long period
2. You lose your internet connection for a long period
3. Your broker disconnects for lengthy periods of time

4. Your computer dies on you and it takes 3 days to get it repaired and you live in a remote area where you don't have easy access to another computer.
5. You are the victim of a natural catastrophe (big storm, earthquake, flood) and can't access your account for a long period

Being in a trade which goes against you and not being able to access your account is no fun, but being in this situation and NOT HAVING A STOP LOSS in place will make matters much worse. So, just put one to make sure you don't lose your shirt. We never know what can happen.

I didn’t come up with the idea, I had read it in a forum myself a few years ago and I still believe it’s good advice. You’ll do whatever you want in your account, because it’s YOUR account. But remember we never know what can happen. I live in a very quiet place, not a “danger” area at all but in the last decade we’ve had a major earthquake AND a major flood (these things happen like once in every 100,000 years here) but see they did happen. So please, think about it if you’re inclined to not put stop losses.

Hey HAVE A GREAT WEEK-END EVERYONE thanks for all your nice emails/comments and SEE YOU AT MARKET OPEN !!!!

New account going strong

July 9, 2009

For those of you just starting out, this is what your screen should look like right now (14:00 EST).



This is the trending platform with my new demo and you can see from the "time" column that these trades have only been since yesterday (1 yesterday and 6 today) and we're already well above +600.

Now, if you manage your trades in your account like I do, you might have exited gbpaud when it started showing signs of upwards exhaustion. I did yesterday for +110 (it's currently up at +366 so it might have been better to trail the stop, but I'm always happy to pocket pips (pip pocket!) for any amount.

So you can't say this is hard, really you simply do nothing and less than 2 days later you're up +600 pips... Did I mention I love trading forex ;-)

Peace

1,350 pips since yesterday!

July 8, 2009

Did you see these JUMBO candles today?



It’s unfortunate (I would use another word if I wasn’t polite) that my demo expired 2 days ago because I would probably be showing you an all time RECORD. I made the calculations by hand (and you can check for yourself using the results I posted just before the expiration Tuesday) and this is what the trending platform would show:

Eurgbp: +124
Gbpusd: +410
Gbpjpy: +994 <--- !!!
Usdjpy: +365
Eurjpy: +631
Gbpchf: +224
Gbpaud: +137 (new buy) I’m currently in this one with new demo
Usdchf: +34
Audusd: +139
Eurusd: +49

For a total of: +3,107 pips !!! MaMaMia...

Considering this is only 7 trading days (since June 30) that's a cool +443 pips/day average... (or $4,430.00/day on standard lots, or $31,010.00/week, or $124,040.00/month, or... well you get the picture ;-)) Do the math for one year hehehe...

New account

July 7, 2009

Well just after I posted that screenshot, my trending platform demo EXPIRED ! (strange that the ranging one didn't expire as I had opened them at the same time, but who knows with brokers)

So anyway, I have to restart once again, so here's what your screen should look like if you've just started about 3 hours ago (new trending platform):



So you can see, we're still trending away...

Beautiful wake-up

July 7, 2009

I woke up this morning around 11 :00 am to a screen which once again was hitting the +1,600 mark. And the gbpaud sell was at +130. I told you when this one goes right, it’s worth it. I adjusted my SL as it was starting to go up a bit, it got hit, and I pocketed +112, all in all I came out BE with this one (recrosses included). It’s currently at +1 but looking to loose speed on the upside.

We also had a few recrosses with eurusd and usdchf which have been playing hide-and-seek, but apart from these small losses (you might have come out at BE) the overall platform is still doing great as you can see.



I’m still working on my scalping strategy to fill the waiting time and I want to make it as simple and straightforward as possible as well as profitable, of course this goes without saying. I’m currently up about +600 pips (592 to be exact) since June 18 (14 trading days), so that’s about 42 pips/day which is a nice addition. So that’s what I’m working on these days, in between levels of Zuma. I’m also keeping an eye on the Pair Difference indicator, but so far it isn’t “speaking” to me clearly.

Alright, back to the graphs.

Pair difference

July 6, 2009 later

I hope everyone took some nice profits since the move at ++ 1,600.

Everything is going well with the platform still showing +1,000 except for gbpaud which has been trying to get funny on us and had 2 recrosses. This one has a mind of its own and I’d advise you not to trade it in your account in the beginning. Leave the bot on in your observation platform but turn it off in your account. It does these recrosses that’ll make you say religious words and frustrate you, but once it starts to fly in the right direction, wow, it’s a spectacular thing to see.

I stumbled on an indicator today called Pair Difference (well I stumbled on it in my own directory while searching for something else, I must have had it for a long time). See pic below:



You’ve got 8 pairs on this, the 2 missing are the CHFs (can only input 8 pairs in the indi).

Here are the colours:

Audusd: white
Eurgbp: yellow
Eurusd: red
Eurjpy: purple
Gbpaud (the brat!): gray
Gbpjpy: olive
Gbpusd: lime
Usdjpy: aqua

I don’t know how it can relate to our platforms and I’m not even sure what I’m looking at but notice something happened on July 2 (last Thursday). I remember there was big movement around 16:00 (I spoke about this on here) probably due to profit taking before the US holiday but I’m not sure it has something to do with this. For a moment (this chart is the 1H bars) the pairs all seemed to “not” have any difference and then they started parting again.

I’ll need to look into it more closely in case it can give us an additional cue as to when markets are changing direction (always looking to find an extra edge!). I’ll upload it to the download link in a second. If you hover your mouse over the lines on your screen you’ll see what pair it is.

Have a look again...

July 6, 2009

Just got up - it's 10:30 am here. Look at my screen !

July is a crazy month !

July 5, 2009 yet again not so many minutes later…

Heheheheh….

Didn’t I tell you that July was a crazy month?

Some of you are facing a 10,000 $ profit right in your face right now. Less than one week of work, this is too good.

If you’re not convinced, I’m posting these figures in real time so anyone can check their charts to see I’m not making anything up. It just works….

Trending, trending

July 5, 21:37 a few minutes later, and it doesn't stop !

Look :



Do you realize that these are MINI lots here? Those of you who trade standard lots have 9,000$ (that's NINE THOUSAND DOLLARS)in front of your screen right now (double if you're trading in euros!) and these trades where only taken since last Monday, so not even a WEEK old !

Dear God....

July 5, a bit later

It's currently 21:26....

Look at this! Tell me why anyone would want to do anything else than trade forex ??? The dance continues...

Trending away

July 5, 2009

Welcome back on board!

Our trending platform closed Friday at +547 and it's currently up at +704 an hour and a half after market open :



Great week ahead!

Friday close

July 3, 2009

It's the end of another glorious trading week, once again. We're finishing in nice profit and it feels more than good. Today was a holiday in the US, so things were a bit slow this morning and definitely SLOW this afternoon which a peak around 16:00 probably due to profit taking before the week-end.

So I wish everyone a good one and as usual, see you at market open !

What a few minutes can do...

July 2, 2009

This is about 20 minutes later.



Not comments required ;-)

Another trending day

July 2, 2009

Forgot to say "Happy 1st of July to all" (Canadian holiday) yesterday.

Alright, here's where our trending platform currently stands at 17:00 :



GBPCHF is just about to cross up after raking in +130 pips. Good boy!

A great trading day, once again!

Trending strengthening

July 1, 2009

Trending is currently at + 528 (ranging is in negative territory).

In a hurry, back later!